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Published on: Jul 02, 2021
2 minute read
By: Dr Rakesh Rai

Delta Plus Variant Mystery: What Can Cause The Third Covid Wave?

Delta plus variant mystery: What can cause the third Covid wave?

Things in India are looking to normalize and beginning to reopen after a deadly second wave of Covid-19 infections devastated the country in April and May. There is various thought process from experts who are warning that a third wave could strike in the next few months. The majority of Indians are worried about new variants named delta plus, which is related to the Delta, an existing variant of concern first identified in India last year that was responsible for the deadly second wave.

The million-dollar question is how realistic these fears are. The reality is that future waves are not out of question but their severity and spread depend on several factors. In the past few weeks, the number of average daily cases in India has tapered down to less than 40,000 in recent days which was peak over 420,000 in May. The big drop in numbers has mainly because of strict lockdowns by states.

Many social and political events added to the second wave. If the reopening process are not orchestrated in a controlled fashion the next wave could come sooner than expected.

We are in a very decisive phase and our fate will depend on how we behave. Opening the states in a staggered manner is best. Going aggressive with vaccination and continue with COVID protocols will be the winning strategy. A balanced local and central health protocols could do the magic while severe action on defaulters could be used as a deterrent.

We know that the Delta variant had a killer impact during the second wave. The risk of future mutants in densely populated areas is known and preventive actions should be put in place immediately. There is no clear data around Delta plus but things have changed really fast when the proactive approach is not taken in advance. We need to understand that mutants only emerge when active transmission happening. A lot of research is happening around it take preemptive containment measures by understanding probable sequences.

So far data is indicating that the current vaccine is delivering good results in emerging mutants. India had sequenced 30,000 samples until June, but experts believe more needs to be done because the current vaccine is not a guaranteed long-term solution.

There are multiple cases where vaccinated people have got infected. Some call 3rd wave inevitable and some call it will be a smaller wave but the science is indicating that it will all depend on how effective our existing vaccine is against the new variants.

So, in conclusion, one can say that the key is the vaccinated population in controlling the wave and even allowing it to be formed. The acquired immunity and its efficacy will be crucial in determining the damage the third wave can cause. The required daily dose is upwards of 10 million to get all eligible populations covered by 2021.

The wide range of infection-causing natural antibodies and vaccination combined will provide the ammunition India needs badly to shield against future variants. The problem is the data around it is not very accurate. During the height of infections lot of COVID, infections went unreported. A lot of statisticians around it are guessing the acquired immunity percentage to be around 65%. This number should not be the reason we can take it easy.

Acquired immunity is immunity you develop over time from a vaccine or exposure to the infection.

Conclusively it can be said that “Third wave is only possible if the new variant beats the barriers of acquired immunity.”

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Sleep Debt and Its Impact on the Body: Hidden Risks of Chronic Sleep Loss

Sleep is not a luxury; it is a biological necessity. Yet in today’s fast-paced world, many people consistently sacrifice sleep due to work demands, screen time and stress. Over time, insufficient sleep accumulates into what is known as sleep debt. Understanding sleep debt and its impact on the body is essential because chronic sleep loss silently affects nearly every organ system.

According to the World Health Organization and global sleep research, chronic sleep deprivation is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorders and mental health conditions.

What Is Sleep Debt?

Sleep debt refers to the cumulative effect of not getting enough sleep.

For example:

if you need 8 hours but sleep 6 hours daily
you accumulate 2 hours of sleep debt per night

Over a week, that equals 14 hours of lost sleep.

This deficit places strain on the body.

Why Sleep Is Critical for Health

Sleep supports:

brain function
immune response
hormonal regulation
tissue repair
memory consolidation

Without adequate sleep, these processes become impaired.

Immediate Effects of Sleep Debt

Short-term consequences include:

daytime fatigue
poor concentration
mood swings
irritability
reduced reaction time

Even one night of poor sleep affects cognitive performance.

Sleep Debt and Hormonal Imbalance

Sleep regulates several key hormones.

Chronic sleep loss disrupts:

cortisol
insulin
leptin and ghrelin (hunger hormones)

This imbalance affects appetite, stress and metabolism.

Impact on Metabolic Health

Sleep debt increases:

insulin resistance
blood sugar fluctuations
abdominal fat accumulation

ICMR and NFHS-5 data show rising metabolic disorders in India, partly linked to lifestyle patterns including poor sleep.

Increased Risk of Obesity

When sleep is insufficient:

appetite hormones increase
cravings for high-calorie foods rise
impulse control weakens

Sleep deprivation promotes weight gain.

Sleep Debt and Immunity

The immune system relies heavily on sleep.

Chronic sleep loss:

reduces infection-fighting cells
increases inflammation
slows recovery from illness

Lancet research confirms that sleep deprivation weakens immune response.

Cardiovascular Consequences

Sleep debt increases risk of:

hypertension
heart disease
stroke

Poor sleep affects blood pressure regulation and vascular health.

Mental Health Impact

Sleep and mental health are deeply connected.

Sleep debt contributes to:

anxiety
depression
emotional instability

Chronic insomnia is both a cause and consequence of mental health disorders.

Cognitive Decline and Brain Health

Lack of sleep impairs:

memory
attention
decision-making

Over time, chronic sleep deprivation may increase risk of neurodegenerative disorders.

Sleep Debt and Inflammation

Chronic sleep loss elevates inflammatory markers.

Persistent inflammation contributes to:

metabolic syndrome
cardiovascular disease
autoimmune conditions

Preventing sleep debt reduces systemic inflammation.

Can Sleep Debt Be Recovered?

Short-term sleep debt can be partially recovered through:

consistent longer sleep
improved sleep hygiene

However, chronic sleep deprivation requires long-term behavioural changes.

Weekend “catch-up sleep” offers temporary relief but does not fully reverse long-standing sleep debt.

Warning Signs of Sleep Debt

Common indicators include:

reliance on caffeine
difficulty waking up
daytime drowsiness
poor focus
frequent illness

Persistent symptoms require lifestyle correction.

Practical Strategies to Reduce Sleep Debt

Maintain a Consistent Sleep Schedule

Go to bed and wake up at the same time daily.

Limit Screen Exposure Before Bed

Blue light suppresses melatonin production.

Create a Sleep-Friendly Environment

Dark, quiet and cool environments improve sleep quality.

Manage Stress

Relaxation techniques reduce cortisol levels and support sleep.

Avoid Heavy Meals and Caffeine at Night

These disrupt sleep cycles.

Role of Preventive Health Checkups

Screening helps detect:

hypertension
metabolic imbalance
stress-related conditions

Sleep quality assessment should be part of preventive care.

Long-Term Benefits of Adequate Sleep

Restorative sleep supports:

stable mood
strong immunity
healthy weight
improved productivity
reduced disease risk

Sleep is foundational to wellness.

Conclusion

Understanding sleep debt and its impact on the body highlights the critical role sleep plays in maintaining physical and mental health. Chronic sleep loss disrupts hormones, weakens immunity, increases metabolic risk and affects heart health. While occasional sleep loss may be manageable, consistent deprivation carries serious long-term consequences. Prioritising adequate, high-quality sleep is one of the most powerful steps toward protecting overall health and preventing chronic disease.

References

World Health Organization (WHO) – Sleep and Non-Communicable Diseases
Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – Lifestyle Disorders and Sleep Patterns
National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) – Adult Health Indicators
Lancet – Sleep Deprivation and Chronic Disease Research
NITI Aayog – Preventive Healthcare and Lifestyle Risk Factors

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