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Published on: Apr 04, 2020
3 minute read
By: Dr Rajan Choudhary

Developing A Vaccine For COVID-19? Part 1

It is often stated vaccination has made the greatest contribution to global health of any human discovery, other than clean water and sanitation, and their impact on everyday life is immediately evident. We have managed to completely eradicate two major infections from existence (smallpox and rinderpest) , and the WHO are working towards adding polio to that list.

In these cases the numbers speak for themselves. It is estimated that the eradication of smallpox in 1980 has saved 5 million lives per year, adding up to 150 to 200 million by 2018. Common vaccination programmes for polio, measles, mumps, rubella, rabies and hepatitis A have prevented nearly 200 million cases from occurring in the US alone over the past 50 years, and 4.5 billion instances of the diseases worldwide.

We have achieved a 99% immunisation rate against polio, preventing children from suffering crippling paralysis, and only 3 countries remain. Sadly, around 1.4 million children under 5 still die from preventable diseases each year as they do not have access to these life saving vaccines, but charities and public health organisations around the world are working hard to improve access.

So what are vaccines? And how will they help is in the face of the latest pandemic? Here we will go into the challenges behind making vaccines, and why a vaccine against COVID-19 is unlikely to be ready in the next few months, or even this year.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4024226/ contribution of vaccination

https://www.who.int/features/factfiles/polio/en/ polio eradication

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/03/170303163208.htm study article

WHAT IS A VACCINE

The human body’s immune system is incredibly smart. It is able to distinguish between infective organisms, such as bacteria, viruses and parasites, from our own body’s cells, target these invaders for destruction and keep our bodies healthy. Even better, the body remembers any previous infections it has had before, recognise these previous infections even quicker and even eradicate the disease before we know we are infected.

Vaccines target the immune system’s memory by presenting them with pieces of these infective diseases. The small amounts do not cause any infective symptoms, but if the person is infected later in life their body will mount a quicker response and prevent them from falling ill. These vaccines can contain broken up parts of the organisms, “dead” organisms or “live” versions that have been severely weakened so they cannot cause any harm.

In summary, medicines treat us when we get an infection. Vaccines make sure we never suffer from an infection in the first place.

https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-center/making-vaccines/how-are-vaccines-made Making Vaccines

THE HURDLES WE FACE IN RESEARCH

Making a vaccine is a difficult process, one that can take 3–5 years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, sometimes billions of dollars. This is because there are many difficult steps to be taken in the process of creating a vaccine that is effective, but more importantly one that is safe.

To start with the troubling organism has to be identified. For COVID-19 it took a few weeks to recognise the virus responsible, and some time more to understand its genetic code and grow the virus in lab conditions. We then have to understand the virus, how it infects, how it causes symptoms, and how it has mutated compared to the coronaviruses responsible for SARS and MERS.

After this, we have to isolate parts of the virus our immune system will recognise. This is usually the outside coat of the virus. The DNA responsible for making these parts need to be found in the virus’ genetic code, and put inside other “skeleton” viruses. This will force the dummy virus to look like coronavirus, without the ability to infect and kill someone.

These dummy viruses can be injected into animals to see if it causes an immune reaction, whether the immune system recognises it as the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, and whether it will protect the animal from the real COVID-19. Up to now the research has likely cost a few million dollars. The next step is when the price inflates up to billions.

If the vaccine appears safe in animals, it can be tested in humans. This can be dangerous at first, since we don’t know whether a vaccine that works in an animal will work in a human. And we don’t know if there will be any side effects to the vaccine. Human testing has to be very thorough, very careful, and safe for use. If you give too much of the virus it might make the person sick, too little and it wont immunise the person. These clinical trials can take years, and if the vaccine fails at this point its back to the drawing board, to try another step.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/10/how-to-make-an-ebola-vaccine-5-simplified-steps/454443/ ebola vaccine

Now we have a basic understanding of what vaccines are and why it takes so long to make a vaccine. In the next part we will look at why viral vaccines can cause even more problems, and how far we have come with the COVID-19 vaccine,

Dr Rajan Choudhary, London UK

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Healthcare Predictive Analytics India: The Future of Data-Driven Preventive Health

Indian healthcare is experiencing a major transformation as data analytics and artificial intelligence become integral to medical decision-making. Healthcare predictive analytics uses advanced algorithms to analyze medical data, lifestyle patterns, and population health trends to identify risks long before symptoms appear. This shift toward prediction rather than reaction is helping India build a stronger, more preventive healthcare ecosystem.

Predictive analytics supports early diagnosis, reduces medical complications, improves treatment outcomes, and lowers healthcare costs. As India faces rising chronic diseases, urban lifestyle pressures, and limited specialist availability, predictive healthcare has become essential for timely and accurate care. SecondMedic integrates predictive analytics into its digital health platform, enabling individuals and clinicians to make proactive health decisions.

Why Predictive Analytics Matters in India’s Healthcare Landscape

India has one of the highest global burdens of chronic diseases. According to ICMR, non-communicable diseases account for over 60 percent of total deaths in the country. Many of these illnesses develop silently, making early detection difficult without advanced tools.

Predictive analytics helps change this by identifying patterns and generating early risk signals. Key factors driving its adoption include:

Growth of digital medical records
Widespread use of wearables and health trackers
Increased testing and diagnostic data availability
Government-supported digital health initiatives
Higher patient expectations for personalized care

With these enablers in place, predictive analytics is moving from research to everyday clinical use.

How Predictive Analytics Works in Healthcare

Predictive analytics draws from a wide range of data sources to generate meaningful insights. These insights help forecast risks, detect abnormalities, and recommend preventive actions.

Data sources used include:

Electronic medical records
Lab test results
Vital signs and biometric data
Wearable device data
Lifestyle and nutrition patterns
Family and genetic factors
Population health statistics

AI algorithms analyze this data to identify trends that may indicate early risk.

Early Disease Detection Through Predictive Models

One of the most valuable applications of predictive analytics is early detection. Many chronic diseases show minor biological changes long before symptoms appear. Predictive models can analyze these subtle indicators and alert patients and doctors early.

Predictive analytics can help detect:

Diabetes risk and prediabetes
Hypertension and cardiovascular risk
Thyroid dysfunction
Chronic kidney disease
Mental health patterns
Sleep disorders
Respiratory illness likelihood

SecondMedic’s predictive tools evaluate these risk markers and create personalized alerts.

Predictive Analytics for Chronic Disease Management

Chronic conditions require ongoing care, monitoring, and timely intervention. Predictive analytics enhances chronic disease management by identifying when a condition may worsen or require immediate attention.

Predictive tools help with:

Monitoring health trends continuously
Detecting early warning signs
Reducing emergency hospitalizations
Recommending medication adjustments
Forecasting disease progression
Tracking lifestyle impact

SecondMedic integrates these insights with remote monitoring devices to support long-term chronic care.

Personalized Preventive Care Using Predictive Models

Preventive care becomes more precise with predictive analytics. Instead of generalized recommendations, individuals receive personalized plans based on their specific risks and lifestyle patterns.

Predictive analytics supports personalized care by:

Creating customized screening schedules
Suggesting targeted lifestyle improvements
Recommending personalized diet and exercise routines
Providing sleep and stress insights
Helping individuals avoid long-term complications

SecondMedic uses these data-backed insights to deliver tailored preventive plans for each user.

AI-Driven Risk Scoring and Health Forecasting

AI risk scoring is a core part of predictive healthcare. These scores reflect a person’s likelihood of developing certain conditions within a specific timeframe. They help users understand their health trajectory and take necessary steps early.

Risk scores are generated using:

Blood tests
Vitals
Daily activity patterns
Family health history
Behavioral trends
Environmental factors

SecondMedic offers AI-based risk scores that help individuals track their health over time and make informed decisions.

Predictive Analytics for Mental Health and Lifestyle Patterns

Predictive analytics is increasingly used to understand mental health indicators such as stress, burnout, depression risk, or sleep disturbances. Wearables and digital behavior analysis provide a large amount of data for predicting emotional wellbeing.

Predictive models can analyze:

Sleep patterns
Heart rate variability
Stress markers
Digital behavior patterns
Lifestyle routines

SecondMedic integrates these insights into its wellness programs to support mental and emotional wellbeing.

Improving Population Health with Predictive Analytics

Predictive analytics is not limited to individual care. It also plays a critical role in public health planning. By identifying disease clusters, risk trends, and healthcare needs, predictive models help governments and hospitals prepare better.

Population-level benefits include:

Identifying outbreaks early
Predicting disease burden
Allocating healthcare resources effectively
Planning community health programs
Improving screening recommendations

SecondMedic works toward making population health analytics accessible to organizations and communities.

Predictive Analytics and the Future of Indian Healthcare

In the coming years, predictive analytics will be integrated into most healthcare systems and digital platforms. India is moving toward a future where early risk detection becomes standard practice.

Future trends include:

AI-driven clinical decision support
Predictive genomics
Precision nutrition and metabolism modeling
Hospital predictive workflow systems
Predictive triaging for emergency care
Integration with Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission
Nationwide predictive health screening programs

SecondMedic aims to remain at the forefront of this transformation by developing advanced predictive tools for both clinical and personal use.

Conclusion

Healthcare predictive analytics in India is reshaping how diseases are detected, managed, and prevented. By leveraging AI, big data, and continuous monitoring, predictive healthcare empowers individuals to act early and avoid complications. SecondMedic integrates these advanced tools into a unified digital health ecosystem, offering personalized risk scoring, early alerts, and precise preventive care.

To explore predictive health tools and preventive care programs, visit www.secondmedic.com

References

NITI Aayog – Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare India
ICMR – Chronic Disease Burden Report 2024
IMARC – Healthcare Analytics Market India 2025
WHO – Predictive Health Analytics Standards
FICCI – AI and Healthcare Innovation India Report

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