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Published on: Apr 20, 2020
3 minute read
By: Dr Rajan Choudhary

Is Herd Immunity A Valid Strategy For COVID 19?

Yesterday we explained you what Herd Immunity means and how it works, today we will take the discussion further to determine whether it is effective and can be recommended in the current context.

COVID-19 currently does not have a cure or a vaccine. Lockdown is the only strategy that appears to be working. Could implementing policies that encourages herd immunity be used to accelerate immunity in the population without the need for a vaccine?

INFECTIVITY

For the strategy to work we need to know a few things about the virus. How infective is it? In one of our earliest blogs we discussed infectivity at length and determined that the R0 (infectivity) may be between 2 and 3. This means each person with the virus can infect around 2-3 people at a time. Whilst this is not as high as Mumps (10-12) it is much higher than the common flu. The higher the R0 the more people that need to be immunised before herd immunity is achieved. For COVID it is estimated that 70% of the population need to be infected.

This is based off our current testing. Due to shortages in testing kits, only testing those that have a high likelihood of being infected and poorly organised testing infrastructure in some countries, we are likely underestimating. The number of people infected may be much higher as we are missing those that are asymptomatic but still have the disease and are still passing the disease on.

MORTALITY

Secondly, we need to know the mortality from COVID-19. Early estimates of mortality were as high as 10%, as we had little data on how many people were truly infected, but as the number of infected cases rose, and testing amongst the infected and symptomatic population rose, a more accurate mortality has been found to be around 1%. There is a risk we may still be underestimating the true mortality, as some cities have noted a spike in cardiac deaths, and some evidence supports possible cardiac damage due to COVID. But from the data we have, we know its mortality is lower than MERS (34%) and SARS (10%) but more than influenza (0.1%).

estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate

Whilst we have some data on who is likely to suffer from severe COVID symptoms (elderly, immunocompromised, people with heart or lung problems) we still cannot accurately determine who will get severe COVID in the “low risk” population. Simply because someone is young and healthy does not mean they will not die from COVID.

LENGTH OF IMMUNITY

Third we need to know how long this immunity will last. Similar coronaviruses responsible for the common cold usually create immunity that lasts for a few months, which is why we often get the cold repeatedly. A virus is also very prone to mutations that can change the structure and functions of its proteins, proteins responsible for tagging, latching on to and entering cells. If the structure of these proteins changes enough, then our antibodies will not be able to bind on, and new types of antibodies will have to be made with a slightly different structure. This effectively means our bodies have to start from step 1 again to create immunity, and we have to make new vaccines. This mutation rate is why we have to make new vaccines every season for the flu.

LONG TERM COMPLICATIONS

Finally, we need to know if there are any long-term implications from a viral infection. Again, this is something we do not know yet, as the virus has only been around for a few months. There may be implications for the cardiovascular system, long term breathing problems or more. And even if the complication rate appears relatively low (say, 1%), if millions of people are allowed to get infected, by definitions thousands or tens of thousands of people will have these complications, complications that can lead to issues later in life or an early death.

CONCLUSION

So, is herd immunity a viable strategy for COVID? Without a safe vaccine the general consensus appears to be no.

We don’t know how infective the virus really is or how many people it has infected

A 1% death rate is still very high. This means for every 100 people to be infected; one will die. This would mean hundreds of thousands of people dead in a country with a population over 10 million. It is unacceptably high.

If the death rate is 1%, then hospitalisation rate is likely higher. Almost all countries do not have capacity to have 1% of the population in hospital. Overwhelming the healthcare system will lead to poorer care, and worse care for those who do not have COVID. Leading to more people coming to serious harm or dying as a result of poor healthcare, not because of COVID.

We don’t know the long-term effects of COVID. By purposefully infecting people instead of waiting for a vaccine we may be causing unnecessary damage to a person’s health that only becomes apparent later in life. But this is speculation as we do not currently know if COVID has long term effects,

We don’t know if all of the risks above will amount to anything. The immunity may not last long enough, leading to another spike in infections and mortality.

Mass vaccination appears to be the safest strategy. And though human clinical trials have started on a number of vaccines, we are still months away from deployment. Until then we should not come out of lockdown prematurely, not until we have received an unbiased assessment from public health officials that states it is safe.

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5K Run for a Cause: How Community Fitness Drives Preventive Health Awareness

Physical activity is one of the most effective tools for disease prevention, yet it remains underutilised in everyday life. Community-based fitness initiatives such as a 5K Run for a Cause play a powerful role in bridging this gap by making movement accessible, meaningful and socially engaging. These events combine the benefits of exercise with awareness-building, creating lasting impact on public health.

In India, lifestyle-related diseases such as diabetes, heart disease and obesity are rising rapidly. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), physical inactivity is a major contributor to this growing burden. Events that encourage structured, enjoyable physical activity help counter this trend.

What Is a 5K Run for a Cause?

A 5K Run for a Cause is a short-distance running or walking event designed to promote fitness while supporting a health, social or community objective. Participants may run, jog or walk the 5-kilometre distance, making the event inclusive for people of varying fitness levels.

Beyond physical activity, these runs aim to:

raise awareness about preventive health
encourage active lifestyles
build community participation
support wellness-driven causes

Why 5K Is an Ideal Distance

The 5-kilometre distance is widely recognised as:

achievable for beginners
challenging enough to promote fitness
safe for most age groups with minimal training

WHO physical activity guidelines support moderate-intensity exercise like running or brisk walking for improving cardiovascular and metabolic health.

Health Benefits of Participating in a 5K Run

Improved Cardiovascular Health

Running and brisk walking strengthen the heart, improve circulation and lower blood pressure. Regular participation reduces the risk of heart disease and stroke.

Better Metabolic Health

Physical activity improves insulin sensitivity and supports weight management. ICMR data shows that regular movement significantly reduces diabetes risk.

Enhanced Mental Wellbeing

Exercise releases endorphins that reduce stress, anxiety and depression. Community runs add a social element that further supports mental health.

Improved Musculoskeletal Strength

Running strengthens muscles, bones and joints, reducing the risk of age-related mobility issues.

Role of 5K Runs in Preventive Healthcare

Preventive healthcare focuses on reducing disease risk before illness develops. A 5K Run for a Cause supports prevention by:

promoting physical activity
encouraging regular movement habits
raising awareness about lifestyle diseases
motivating health-conscious behaviour

NITI Aayog identifies physical activity promotion as a key pillar of preventive healthcare in India.

Community Impact of a 5K Run for a Cause

Building Health Awareness

Runs often highlight specific causes such as heart health, diabetes prevention or mental wellbeing, reinforcing public health messages.

Strengthening Social Bonds

Community participation fosters shared goals and mutual motivation, increasing long-term adherence to healthy habits.

Encouraging Family Participation

Inclusive events encourage families to adopt healthier lifestyles together.

5K Runs and Corporate Wellness Programs

Corporate wellness programs increasingly include physical activity initiatives.

Benefits for organisations include:

improved employee engagement
reduced absenteeism
enhanced team bonding
positive employer branding

EY-FICCI reports show that wellness initiatives focused on physical activity deliver strong participation and measurable health benefits.

Accessibility and Inclusivity

A key strength of 5K runs is inclusivity.

They accommodate:

first-time runners
walkers
older adults
people transitioning to active lifestyles

This inclusiveness reduces barriers to participation.

Supporting Long-Term Behaviour Change

One-time events create awareness, but their true value lies in inspiring long-term change.

Participants often:

continue walking or running regularly
become more conscious of fitness
seek preventive health checkups

Lancet studies indicate that community-based physical activity initiatives can influence long-term health behaviours.

Safety and Health Considerations

For safe participation:

individuals should assess fitness levels
warm-up and cool-down are essential
hydration should be prioritised
those with medical conditions should seek medical advice

Proper guidance ensures benefits without injury.

Role of Awareness and Education

Successful runs integrate education through:

health talks
informational materials
screening camps
wellness resources

This combination reinforces preventive health messages.

Measuring Impact

Impact can be assessed through:

participation rates
follow-up health initiatives
employee engagement metrics
community feedback

Data-driven evaluation improves future program design.

Why 5K Runs Matter in India

India faces challenges such as:

rising sedentary lifestyles
limited health awareness
increasing chronic disease burden

Community fitness events provide a scalable, low-cost solution to promote active living and prevention.

Conclusion

A 5K Run for a Cause is more than a fitness event—it is a preventive health movement. By combining physical activity with purpose, these runs encourage healthier lifestyles, strengthen community bonds and raise awareness about long-term wellbeing. In a country where lifestyle diseases are growing rapidly, initiatives that make movement accessible and meaningful are essential. A simple 5K run can be a powerful step toward a healthier, more active society.

References

ICMR – Physical Activity and Lifestyle Disease Prevention Reports
National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) – Physical Activity and Health Data
NITI Aayog – Preventive Healthcare and Physical Activity Promotion Strategy
WHO – Physical Activity and Health Guideline
Lancet – Community Fitness and Preventive Health Studies
Statista – Fitness Events and Participation Trends India
EY-FICCI – Corporate Wellness and Physical Activity Reports

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