Is Herd Immunity A Valid Strategy For COVID 19?

Yesterday we explained you what Herd Immunity means and how it works, today we will take the discussion further to determine whether it is effective and can be recommended in the current context.

COVID-19 currently does not have a cure or a vaccine. Lockdown is the only strategy that appears to be working. Could implementing policies that encourages herd immunity be used to accelerate immunity in the population without the need for a vaccine?

INFECTIVITY

For the strategy to work we need to know a few things about the virus. How infective is it? In one of our earliest blogs we discussed infectivity at length and determined that the R0 (infectivity) may be between 2 and 3. This means each person with the virus can infect around 2-3 people at a time. Whilst this is not as high as Mumps (10-12) it is much higher than the common flu. The higher the R0 the more people that need to be immunised before herd immunity is achieved. For COVID it is estimated that 70% of the population need to be infected.

This is based off our current testing. Due to shortages in testing kits, only testing those that have a high likelihood of being infected and poorly organised testing infrastructure in some countries, we are likely underestimating. The number of people infected may be much higher as we are missing those that are asymptomatic but still have the disease and are still passing the disease on.

MORTALITY

Secondly, we need to know the mortality from COVID-19. Early estimates of mortality were as high as 10%, as we had little data on how many people were truly infected, but as the number of infected cases rose, and testing amongst the infected and symptomatic population rose, a more accurate mortality has been found to be around 1%. There is a risk we may still be underestimating the true mortality, as some cities have noted a spike in cardiac deaths, and some evidence supports possible cardiac damage due to COVID. But from the data we have, we know its mortality is lower than MERS (34%) and SARS (10%) but more than influenza (0.1%).

estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate

Whilst we have some data on who is likely to suffer from severe COVID symptoms (elderly, immunocompromised, people with heart or lung problems) we still cannot accurately determine who will get severe COVID in the “low risk” population. Simply because someone is young and healthy does not mean they will not die from COVID.

LENGTH OF IMMUNITY

Third we need to know how long this immunity will last. Similar coronaviruses responsible for the common cold usually create immunity that lasts for a few months, which is why we often get the cold repeatedly. A virus is also very prone to mutations that can change the structure and functions of its proteins, proteins responsible for tagging, latching on to and entering cells. If the structure of these proteins changes enough, then our antibodies will not be able to bind on, and new types of antibodies will have to be made with a slightly different structure. This effectively means our bodies have to start from step 1 again to create immunity, and we have to make new vaccines. This mutation rate is why we have to make new vaccines every season for the flu.

LONG TERM COMPLICATIONS

Finally, we need to know if there are any long-term implications from a viral infection. Again, this is something we do not know yet, as the virus has only been around for a few months. There may be implications for the cardiovascular system, long term breathing problems or more. And even if the complication rate appears relatively low (say, 1%), if millions of people are allowed to get infected, by definitions thousands or tens of thousands of people will have these complications, complications that can lead to issues later in life or an early death.

CONCLUSION

So, is herd immunity a viable strategy for COVID? Without a safe vaccine the general consensus appears to be no.

We don’t know how infective the virus really is or how many people it has infected

A 1% death rate is still very high. This means for every 100 people to be infected; one will die. This would mean hundreds of thousands of people dead in a country with a population over 10 million. It is unacceptably high.

If the death rate is 1%, then hospitalisation rate is likely higher. Almost all countries do not have capacity to have 1% of the population in hospital. Overwhelming the healthcare system will lead to poorer care, and worse care for those who do not have COVID. Leading to more people coming to serious harm or dying as a result of poor healthcare, not because of COVID.

We don’t know the long-term effects of COVID. By purposefully infecting people instead of waiting for a vaccine we may be causing unnecessary damage to a person’s health that only becomes apparent later in life. But this is speculation as we do not currently know if COVID has long term effects,

We don’t know if all of the risks above will amount to anything. The immunity may not last long enough, leading to another spike in infections and mortality.

Mass vaccination appears to be the safest strategy. And though human clinical trials have started on a number of vaccines, we are still months away from deployment. Until then we should not come out of lockdown prematurely, not until we have received an unbiased assessment from public health officials that states it is safe.

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World Cancer Day 2025: The Role of Comprehensive Diagnostic Centers in Personalized Cancer Care

World Cancer Day, observed annually on February 4th, serves as a global initiative to raise awareness and promote action against cancer. The theme for 2025, "United by Unique," emphasizes the importance of personalized, patient-centered care in the fight against cancer. Comprehensive diagnostic centres play a pivotal role in this approach, offering tailored services that address the unique needs of each patient.

The Importance of Personalized Cancer Care Diagnostic Centers

Personalized cancer care diagnostic centres are at the forefront of modern oncology, providing individualized assessments that guide treatment decisions. These centres utilize advanced technologies to analyze the specific characteristics of a patient's cancer, including genetic mutations and molecular profiles. This detailed understanding enables healthcare providers to develop targeted therapies that improve outcomes and minimize side effects.

Comprehensive Cancer Diagnostics Services

Comprehensive cancer diagnostics services encompass a range of tests and evaluations designed to detect cancer at its earliest stages and monitor its progression. These services include imaging studies, laboratory tests, genetic screenings, and biopsies. By integrating these diagnostic tools, centres can offer a holistic view of a patient's health, facilitating timely and accurate diagnoses. Early detection through comprehensive diagnostics is crucial, as it significantly increases the chances of successful treatment and survival.

Advancements in Personalized Cancer Diagnostics

The field of personalized cancer diagnostics has seen remarkable advancements in recent years. Innovations such as liquid biopsies, which detect cancer cells or DNA fragments in blood samples, and AI-powered imaging analysis have revolutionized the way cancers are detected and characterized. These technologies allow for less invasive procedures, quicker results, and more precise treatment planning. For instance, AI-powered platforms have been developed to assist in the diagnosis and evaluation of lung cancer, providing fully automated and in-depth analysis of tissues.

The Role of Diagnostic Centers in Personalized Cancer Therapy

Diagnostic centres are integral to personalized cancer therapy, as they provide the essential information needed to tailor treatments to individual patients. By conducting thorough assessments, these centres identify specific biomarkers and genetic alterations that can be targeted with precision therapies. This approach not only enhances the effectiveness of treatments but also reduces the likelihood of adverse effects, leading to improved patient outcomes. Moreover, diagnostic centres often offer comprehensive cancer screening services, enabling the early detection of malignancies and the implementation of timely interventions.

Benefits of Personalized Diagnostics in Cancer Treatment

Personalized diagnostics offer numerous benefits in cancer treatment. By understanding the unique genetic makeup of a patient's tumour, clinicians can select therapies that are more likely to be effective, thereby increasing the chances of remission. Additionally, personalized diagnostics can identify patients who are unlikely to respond to certain treatments, sparing them from unnecessary side effects and allowing for alternative strategies to be pursued. This individualized approach ensures that each patient receives the most appropriate care based on their specific condition.

Advanced Cancer Diagnostic Technologies at Second Medic

At Second Medic, we are committed to providing state-of-the-art diagnostic services that support personalized cancer care. Our facility is equipped with advanced technologies, including high-resolution imaging systems, molecular testing laboratories, and AI-driven diagnostic tools. These resources enable us to perform comprehensive evaluations and deliver precise diagnoses, forming the foundation for effective, individualized treatment plans. Our team of experienced professionals works collaboratively to ensure that each patient receives care tailored to their unique needs.

World Cancer Day 2025 Events

In alignment with the "United by Unique" theme of World Cancer Day 2025, Second Medic is hosting a series of events aimed at promoting personalized cancer care. These events include educational seminars, free screening programs, and patient support workshops. By participating in these initiatives, individuals can gain valuable insights into the importance of personalized diagnostics and learn about the services available to them. We encourage community members to join us in these efforts to raise awareness and support those affected by cancer.

Conclusion

As we observe World Cancer Day 2025, it is essential to recognize the critical role that comprehensive diagnostic centres play in personalized cancer care. Through advanced diagnostics and individualized treatment planning, these centres empower patients and healthcare providers to combat cancer more effectively. At Second Medic, we are dedicated to advancing personalized cancer diagnostics and providing services that meet the unique needs of each patient. Together, united by our commitment to individualized care, we can make significant strides in the fight against cancer.