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Published on: Apr 20, 2020
3 minute read
By: Dr Rajan Choudhary

Is Herd Immunity A Valid Strategy For COVID 19?

Yesterday we explained you what Herd Immunity means and how it works, today we will take the discussion further to determine whether it is effective and can be recommended in the current context.

COVID-19 currently does not have a cure or a vaccine. Lockdown is the only strategy that appears to be working. Could implementing policies that encourages herd immunity be used to accelerate immunity in the population without the need for a vaccine?

INFECTIVITY

For the strategy to work we need to know a few things about the virus. How infective is it? In one of our earliest blogs we discussed infectivity at length and determined that the R0 (infectivity) may be between 2 and 3. This means each person with the virus can infect around 2-3 people at a time. Whilst this is not as high as Mumps (10-12) it is much higher than the common flu. The higher the R0 the more people that need to be immunised before herd immunity is achieved. For COVID it is estimated that 70% of the population need to be infected.

This is based off our current testing. Due to shortages in testing kits, only testing those that have a high likelihood of being infected and poorly organised testing infrastructure in some countries, we are likely underestimating. The number of people infected may be much higher as we are missing those that are asymptomatic but still have the disease and are still passing the disease on.

MORTALITY

Secondly, we need to know the mortality from COVID-19. Early estimates of mortality were as high as 10%, as we had little data on how many people were truly infected, but as the number of infected cases rose, and testing amongst the infected and symptomatic population rose, a more accurate mortality has been found to be around 1%. There is a risk we may still be underestimating the true mortality, as some cities have noted a spike in cardiac deaths, and some evidence supports possible cardiac damage due to COVID. But from the data we have, we know its mortality is lower than MERS (34%) and SARS (10%) but more than influenza (0.1%).

estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate

Whilst we have some data on who is likely to suffer from severe COVID symptoms (elderly, immunocompromised, people with heart or lung problems) we still cannot accurately determine who will get severe COVID in the “low risk” population. Simply because someone is young and healthy does not mean they will not die from COVID.

LENGTH OF IMMUNITY

Third we need to know how long this immunity will last. Similar coronaviruses responsible for the common cold usually create immunity that lasts for a few months, which is why we often get the cold repeatedly. A virus is also very prone to mutations that can change the structure and functions of its proteins, proteins responsible for tagging, latching on to and entering cells. If the structure of these proteins changes enough, then our antibodies will not be able to bind on, and new types of antibodies will have to be made with a slightly different structure. This effectively means our bodies have to start from step 1 again to create immunity, and we have to make new vaccines. This mutation rate is why we have to make new vaccines every season for the flu.

LONG TERM COMPLICATIONS

Finally, we need to know if there are any long-term implications from a viral infection. Again, this is something we do not know yet, as the virus has only been around for a few months. There may be implications for the cardiovascular system, long term breathing problems or more. And even if the complication rate appears relatively low (say, 1%), if millions of people are allowed to get infected, by definitions thousands or tens of thousands of people will have these complications, complications that can lead to issues later in life or an early death.

CONCLUSION

So, is herd immunity a viable strategy for COVID? Without a safe vaccine the general consensus appears to be no.

We don’t know how infective the virus really is or how many people it has infected

A 1% death rate is still very high. This means for every 100 people to be infected; one will die. This would mean hundreds of thousands of people dead in a country with a population over 10 million. It is unacceptably high.

If the death rate is 1%, then hospitalisation rate is likely higher. Almost all countries do not have capacity to have 1% of the population in hospital. Overwhelming the healthcare system will lead to poorer care, and worse care for those who do not have COVID. Leading to more people coming to serious harm or dying as a result of poor healthcare, not because of COVID.

We don’t know the long-term effects of COVID. By purposefully infecting people instead of waiting for a vaccine we may be causing unnecessary damage to a person’s health that only becomes apparent later in life. But this is speculation as we do not currently know if COVID has long term effects,

We don’t know if all of the risks above will amount to anything. The immunity may not last long enough, leading to another spike in infections and mortality.

Mass vaccination appears to be the safest strategy. And though human clinical trials have started on a number of vaccines, we are still months away from deployment. Until then we should not come out of lockdown prematurely, not until we have received an unbiased assessment from public health officials that states it is safe.

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Monthly Health Survey via SecondMedic App: A Smarter Approach to Preventive Healthcare

Healthcare is gradually shifting from reactive treatment to proactive prevention. Traditional health models rely heavily on annual checkups or medical visits only after symptoms become severe. However, many chronic and lifestyle-related conditions develop silently over time. The Monthly Health Survey via the SecondMedic App addresses this gap by enabling continuous health monitoring and early risk identification.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and NITI Aayog, early detection and preventive care are critical to reducing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases in India. Digital health tools play a key role in achieving this shift.

What Is the Monthly Health Survey?

The Monthly Health Survey is a structured digital questionnaire delivered through the SecondMedic App. It captures key health indicators such as:

recurring symptoms
lifestyle habits
stress and sleep patterns
nutrition and activity levels
chronic condition markers

By repeating the survey monthly, subtle health trends become visible.

Why Monthly Health Tracking Matters

Annual Checkups Miss Gradual Changes

Many health issues develop slowly. Annual tests may appear normal while symptoms quietly progress between visits.

Monthly surveys:

detect early warning signs
capture symptom patterns
identify lifestyle-related risks

Health Is Dynamic, Not Static

Stress, sleep, diet and activity fluctuate monthly. Regular tracking reflects real-life health variation more accurately than isolated tests.

How the Monthly Health Survey Works

Each month, users answer a guided set of questions related to:

physical symptoms
mental wellbeing
lifestyle behaviours
known medical conditions

The app analyses responses to highlight:

risk trends
symptom persistence
areas needing attention

This structured approach simplifies health awareness.

Key Health Areas Covered

Symptom Monitoring

Persistent fatigue, headaches, breathlessness or digestive issues are tracked across months to identify patterns.

Lifestyle Risk Factors

The survey captures:

sedentary behaviour
sleep quality
stress levels
dietary habits

These factors strongly influence long-term health outcomes.

Chronic Disease Indicators

For individuals with diabetes, hypertension or thyroid conditions, monthly monitoring supports better disease control and early escalation.

Role in Preventive Healthcare

Preventive healthcare focuses on stopping disease before complications arise.

Monthly health surveys support prevention by:

identifying risks early
prompting timely consultations
supporting lifestyle modification
reducing emergency care needs

WHO and NITI Aayog both highlight digital monitoring as a cornerstone of preventive health systems.

Benefits for Individuals

Early Awareness

Users become aware of health changes before symptoms become severe.

Empowered Decision-Making

Access to regular health insights encourages proactive lifestyle choices.

Reduced Anxiety

Structured tracking reduces uncertainty and fear about unexplained symptoms.

Better Doctor Consultations

Survey data provides doctors with a clearer health history, improving consultation quality.

Benefits for Chronic Care Management

For chronic conditions, consistency is key.

Monthly surveys help:

track symptom control
identify early deterioration
support medication adherence
reduce complications

This continuous loop improves long-term outcomes.

Data-Driven Personalised Care

The survey supports personalised care by:

tailoring recommendations
prioritising high-risk users
guiding preventive interventions

This approach moves healthcare from generic advice to individualised guidance.

Privacy and Responsible Use

Health data is sensitive.

The survey framework is designed to:

collect only relevant information
support medical decision-making
maintain confidentiality

Responsible data use builds trust and long-term engagement.

Why Digital Surveys Are Effective in India

India’s healthcare challenges include:

large population
limited access to preventive care
high lifestyle disease burden

Digital surveys overcome barriers by:

being accessible anywhere
requiring minimal time
enabling large-scale preventive monitoring

This scalability makes them highly impactful.

Integration with Broader Health Ecosystems

Monthly health surveys work best when integrated with:

medical consultations
diagnostic services
preventive checkups
digital health records

Integration ensures continuity of care.

Long-Term Impact on Healthcare Outcomes

Over time, regular health tracking leads to:

earlier diagnoses
reduced hospitalisations
better chronic disease control
lower healthcare costs
improved quality of life

Lancet studies show that continuous monitoring significantly improves preventive outcomes.

Who Should Use a Monthly Health Survey?

adults over 30
individuals with chronic conditions
people with high-stress lifestyles
those focusing on preventive health
corporate wellness participants

Proactive monitoring benefits all age groups.

Conclusion

The Monthly Health Survey via the SecondMedic App represents a modern, preventive approach to healthcare. By capturing health trends regularly rather than annually, it empowers individuals to act early, supports doctors with better insights and reduces the burden of advanced disease. In an era where prevention is the most effective medicine, monthly health surveys transform awareness into action and data into healthier lives.

References

Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – Preventive Healthcare and Early Detection Report
NITI Aayog – Digital Health and Preventive Care Strateg
World Health Organization (WHO) – Digital Health Monitoring Guideline
Lancet – Preventive Healthcare and Continuous Monitoring Studies
National Health Authority – Digital Health Mission Indi
Statista – Digital Health App Adoption Trends India

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