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Published on: Apr 20, 2020
3 minute read
By: Dr Rajan Choudhary

Is Herd Immunity A Valid Strategy For COVID 19?

Yesterday we explained you what Herd Immunity means and how it works, today we will take the discussion further to determine whether it is effective and can be recommended in the current context.

COVID-19 currently does not have a cure or a vaccine. Lockdown is the only strategy that appears to be working. Could implementing policies that encourages herd immunity be used to accelerate immunity in the population without the need for a vaccine?

INFECTIVITY

For the strategy to work we need to know a few things about the virus. How infective is it? In one of our earliest blogs we discussed infectivity at length and determined that the R0 (infectivity) may be between 2 and 3. This means each person with the virus can infect around 2-3 people at a time. Whilst this is not as high as Mumps (10-12) it is much higher than the common flu. The higher the R0 the more people that need to be immunised before herd immunity is achieved. For COVID it is estimated that 70% of the population need to be infected.

This is based off our current testing. Due to shortages in testing kits, only testing those that have a high likelihood of being infected and poorly organised testing infrastructure in some countries, we are likely underestimating. The number of people infected may be much higher as we are missing those that are asymptomatic but still have the disease and are still passing the disease on.

MORTALITY

Secondly, we need to know the mortality from COVID-19. Early estimates of mortality were as high as 10%, as we had little data on how many people were truly infected, but as the number of infected cases rose, and testing amongst the infected and symptomatic population rose, a more accurate mortality has been found to be around 1%. There is a risk we may still be underestimating the true mortality, as some cities have noted a spike in cardiac deaths, and some evidence supports possible cardiac damage due to COVID. But from the data we have, we know its mortality is lower than MERS (34%) and SARS (10%) but more than influenza (0.1%).

estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate

Whilst we have some data on who is likely to suffer from severe COVID symptoms (elderly, immunocompromised, people with heart or lung problems) we still cannot accurately determine who will get severe COVID in the “low risk” population. Simply because someone is young and healthy does not mean they will not die from COVID.

LENGTH OF IMMUNITY

Third we need to know how long this immunity will last. Similar coronaviruses responsible for the common cold usually create immunity that lasts for a few months, which is why we often get the cold repeatedly. A virus is also very prone to mutations that can change the structure and functions of its proteins, proteins responsible for tagging, latching on to and entering cells. If the structure of these proteins changes enough, then our antibodies will not be able to bind on, and new types of antibodies will have to be made with a slightly different structure. This effectively means our bodies have to start from step 1 again to create immunity, and we have to make new vaccines. This mutation rate is why we have to make new vaccines every season for the flu.

LONG TERM COMPLICATIONS

Finally, we need to know if there are any long-term implications from a viral infection. Again, this is something we do not know yet, as the virus has only been around for a few months. There may be implications for the cardiovascular system, long term breathing problems or more. And even if the complication rate appears relatively low (say, 1%), if millions of people are allowed to get infected, by definitions thousands or tens of thousands of people will have these complications, complications that can lead to issues later in life or an early death.

CONCLUSION

So, is herd immunity a viable strategy for COVID? Without a safe vaccine the general consensus appears to be no.

We don’t know how infective the virus really is or how many people it has infected

A 1% death rate is still very high. This means for every 100 people to be infected; one will die. This would mean hundreds of thousands of people dead in a country with a population over 10 million. It is unacceptably high.

If the death rate is 1%, then hospitalisation rate is likely higher. Almost all countries do not have capacity to have 1% of the population in hospital. Overwhelming the healthcare system will lead to poorer care, and worse care for those who do not have COVID. Leading to more people coming to serious harm or dying as a result of poor healthcare, not because of COVID.

We don’t know the long-term effects of COVID. By purposefully infecting people instead of waiting for a vaccine we may be causing unnecessary damage to a person’s health that only becomes apparent later in life. But this is speculation as we do not currently know if COVID has long term effects,

We don’t know if all of the risks above will amount to anything. The immunity may not last long enough, leading to another spike in infections and mortality.

Mass vaccination appears to be the safest strategy. And though human clinical trials have started on a number of vaccines, we are still months away from deployment. Until then we should not come out of lockdown prematurely, not until we have received an unbiased assessment from public health officials that states it is safe.

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Add Indoor Cycles or Scooters at Large Offices – Promote Movement During the Day

Corporate offices today are larger, more digitally connected and more sedentary than ever before. Employees spend extended hours seated at desks, in meetings or on screens. According to the World Health Organization, physical inactivity is among the top risk factors for global mortality. In India, rapid urbanisation and desk-based jobs have significantly increased sedentary behaviour.

One innovative workplace wellness strategy is to Add Indoor Cycles or Scooters at Large Offices – Promote movement during the day. This simple yet impactful initiative encourages daily physical activity within the office environment, helping reduce long-term health risks.

The Sedentary Workplace Problem

Large office campuses often require:

long walks between departments
elevator use for multiple floors
extended desk time

However, most employees still remain seated for more than 6–8 hours daily.

ICMR and NFHS-5 data show increasing prevalence of:

obesity
hypertension
diabetes

Sedentary habits contribute significantly to these conditions.

Why Movement During the Day Matters

Prolonged sitting affects:

metabolism
circulation
posture
heart health

Short bursts of activity improve:

blood flow
oxygen delivery
mental alertness

Encouraging movement throughout the day prevents metabolic slowdown.

How Indoor Cycles and Scooters Help

1. Break the Sitting Cycle

Indoor cycles placed in designated zones allow employees to:

pedal for 5–10 minutes
refresh during breaks
reduce continuous sitting

Scooters in large campuses encourage movement between departments.

2. Boost Energy Levels

Light physical activity stimulates:

endorphin release
improved circulation
mental clarity

Employees return to tasks with renewed focus.

3. Improve Cardiovascular Health

Regular low-intensity cycling helps:

regulate blood pressure
improve heart function
manage weight

Consistent activity reduces risk of heart disease.

4. Encourage Active Office Culture

Visible wellness initiatives create:

positive peer influence
cultural shift toward health
higher engagement

When movement becomes normalised, participation increases.

Impact on Productivity

Contrary to concerns, movement breaks:

improve concentration
reduce fatigue
enhance creativity

Research cited by global workplace health reports shows that active employees demonstrate better cognitive performance.

Suitable for Large Office Campuses

Large offices with:

multiple floors
wide corridors
campus layouts

can safely integrate scooters for short-distance mobility.

Indoor cycling stations can be placed in:

wellness corners
break rooms
near cafeterias

Accessibility encourages usage.

Addressing Safety and Practicality

To ensure safety:

provide clear guidelines
designate riding zones
encourage voluntary participation
maintain equipment regularly

Structured implementation ensures smooth integration.

Mental Health Benefits

Movement during the workday:

reduces stress
lowers cortisol levels
improves mood

Stress reduction contributes to better overall wellbeing.

Supporting Preventive Healthcare

Regular physical activity helps prevent:

metabolic syndrome
obesity
type 2 diabetes
hypertension

Preventive workplace initiatives reduce long-term health costs.

Encouraging Participation

Organisations can:

track voluntary participation
organise friendly cycling challenges
reward consistent engagement

Gamification increases motivation.

Complementing Other Wellness Initiatives

Indoor cycles and scooters can integrate with:

standing desks
walking meetings
stretch breaks
health screening programs

A multi-layered approach maximises impact.

Measuring Success

Metrics may include:

employee feedback
reduced absenteeism
improved wellness survey results
increased engagement scores

Data supports long-term continuation.

Economic Benefits for Employers

Preventive activity reduces:

sick leave
burnout
productivity loss

Healthy employees contribute more consistently.

Creating a Culture of Movement

Leadership participation encourages adoption.

When managers model active behaviour, employees follow.

Wellness becomes embedded in organisational identity.

Long-Term Impact

Encouraging daily movement leads to:

better cardiovascular health
improved metabolic function
reduced stress
enhanced workplace morale

Small, consistent actions create sustainable change.

Conclusion

Add Indoor Cycles or Scooters at Large Offices – Promote movement during the day is a forward-thinking corporate wellness strategy. By addressing sedentary habits directly within the workplace environment, organisations can reduce lifestyle disease risk, enhance productivity and foster a culture of health. Movement is not just exercise—it is preventive healthcare in action. When offices actively design for motion, they invest in the long-term wellbeing of their workforce.

References

World Health Organization (WHO) – Physical Activity and Health Reports
Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – Lifestyle Disease Data
National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) – Obesity and Hypertension Trends
NITI Aayog – Preventive Healthcare Strategy Reports
Lancet – Sedentary Behaviour and Chronic Disease Research

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