• Published on: Apr 20, 2020
  • 3 minute read
  • By: Dr Rajan Choudhary

Is Herd Immunity A Valid Strategy For COVID 19?

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Yesterday we explained you what Herd Immunity means and how it works, today we will take the discussion further to determine whether it is effective and can be recommended in the current context. 

COVID-19 currently does not have a cure or a vaccine. Lockdown is the only strategy that appears to be working. Could implementing policies that encourages herd immunity be used to accelerate immunity in the population without the need for a vaccine?

  1. INFECTIVITY

For the strategy to work we need to know a few things about the virus. How infective is it? In one of our earliest blogs we discussed infectivity at length and determined that the R0 (infectivity) may be between 2 and 3. This means each person with the virus can infect around 2-3 people at a time. Whilst this is not as high as Mumps (10-12) it is much higher than the common flu. The higher the R0 the more people that need to be immunised before herd immunity is achieved. For COVID it is estimated that 70% of the population need to be infected.

This is based off our current testing. Due to shortages in testing kits, only testing those that have a high likelihood of being infected and poorly organised testing infrastructure in some countries, we are likely underestimating. The number of people infected may be much higher as we are missing those that are asymptomatic but still have the disease and are still passing the disease on.

  1. MORTALITY

Secondly, we need to know the mortality from COVID-19. Early estimates of mortality were as high as 10%, as we had little data on how many people were truly infected, but as the number of infected cases rose, and testing amongst the infected and symptomatic population rose, a more accurate mortality has been found to be around 1%. There is a risk we may still be underestimating the true mortality, as some cities have noted a spike in cardiac deaths, and some evidence supports possible cardiac damage due to COVID. But from the data we have, we know its mortality is lower than MERS (34%) and SARS (10%) but more than influenza (0.1%).

estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate

Whilst we have some data on who is likely to suffer from severe COVID symptoms (elderly, immunocompromised, people with heart or lung problems) we still cannot accurately determine who will get severe COVID in the “low risk” population. Simply because someone is young and healthy does not mean they will not die from COVID.

  1. LENGTH OF IMMUNITY

Third we need to know how long this immunity will last. Similar coronaviruses responsible for the common cold usually create immunity that lasts for a few months, which is why we often get the cold repeatedly. A virus is also very prone to mutations that can change the structure and functions of its proteins, proteins responsible for tagging, latching on to and entering cells. If the structure of these proteins changes enough, then our antibodies will not be able to bind on, and new types of antibodies will have to be made with a slightly different structure. This effectively means our bodies have to start from step 1 again to create immunity, and we have to make new vaccines. This mutation rate is why we have to make new vaccines every season for the flu.

  1. LONG TERM COMPLICATIONS

Finally, we need to know if there are any long-term implications from a viral infection. Again, this is something we do not know yet, as the virus has only been around for a few months. There may be implications for the cardiovascular system, long term breathing problems or more. And even if the complication rate appears relatively low (say, 1%), if millions of people are allowed to get infected, by definitions thousands or tens of thousands of people will have these complications, complications that can lead to issues later in life or an early death.

CONCLUSION

So, is herd immunity a viable strategy for COVID? Without a safe vaccine the general consensus appears to be no.

We don’t know how infective the virus really is or how many people it has infected

A    1%     death rate is still very high. This means for every 100 people to be infected; one will die. This would mean hundreds of thousands of people dead in a country with a population over 10 million. It is unacceptably high.

If the death rate is 1%, then hospitalisation rate is likely higher. Almost all countries do not have capacity to have 1% of the population in hospital. Overwhelming the healthcare system will lead to poorer care, and worse care for those who do not have COVID. Leading to more people coming to serious harm or dying as a result of poor healthcare, not because of COVID.

We don’t know the long-term effects of COVID. By purposefully infecting people instead of waiting for a vaccine we may be causing unnecessary damage to a person’s health that only becomes apparent later in life. But this is speculation as we do not currently know if COVID has long term effects,

We don’t know if all of the risks above will amount to anything. The immunity may not last long enough, leading to another spike in infections and mortality.

Mass vaccination appears to be the safest strategy. And though human clinical trials have started on a number of vaccines, we are still months away from deployment.  Until then we should not come out of lockdown prematurely, not until we have received an unbiased assessment from public health officials that states it is safe.

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Vitamin D

Vitamin D Deficiency Symptoms: Signs Your Body May Be Lacking Vitamin D

Vitamin D is an essential nutrient that plays a vital role in maintaining strong bones, supporting the immune system and regulating several important functions in the body. Despite its importance, vitamin D deficiency is one of the most common nutritional deficiencies worldwide.

In India, vitamin D deficiency has become increasingly prevalent due to lifestyle factors such as limited sunlight exposure, indoor working environments and dietary habits. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), a significant percentage of the population may have insufficient vitamin D levels.

Recognizing the symptoms of vitamin D deficiency early is important because prolonged deficiency can lead to serious health complications affecting bones, muscles and overall wellbeing.

What Is Vitamin D and Why Is It Important?

Vitamin D is often called the “sunshine vitamin” because the body produces it when the skin is exposed to sunlight. It plays a key role in calcium absorption, which is essential for maintaining healthy bones and teeth.

In addition to bone health, vitamin D supports several important functions including:

immune system regulation
muscle function
inflammation control
hormonal balance

Low levels of vitamin D can disrupt these functions and contribute to various health problems.

Common Symptoms of Vitamin D Deficiency

Vitamin D deficiency can manifest through several symptoms, many of which are often overlooked or mistaken for other health issues.

Persistent Fatigue

Constant tiredness or low energy levels may be one of the earliest signs of vitamin D deficiency. Even after adequate rest, individuals with low vitamin D levels may continue to feel exhausted.

Vitamin D plays a role in cellular energy production, and insufficient levels may contribute to chronic fatigue.

Bone and Back Pain

One of the most well-known effects of vitamin D deficiency is bone discomfort. Vitamin D helps the body absorb calcium, which is essential for maintaining bone strength.

Low vitamin D levels may cause:

bone pain
lower back pain
increased risk of fractures

Persistent bone discomfort should be evaluated by a healthcare professional.

Muscle Weakness

Vitamin D is important for muscle health and function. Deficiency can lead to muscle weakness, cramps or general muscle fatigue.

Older adults with vitamin D deficiency may also experience reduced mobility and increased risk of falls.

Frequent Illness or Infections

Vitamin D plays a key role in supporting the immune system. Individuals with low vitamin D levels may experience frequent colds, infections or slower recovery from illness.

Research suggests that adequate vitamin D levels help strengthen immune defenses against respiratory infections.

Mood Changes and Depression

Vitamin D may influence brain function and mood regulation. Some studies have found a connection between low vitamin D levels and mood disorders such as depression or anxiety.

People experiencing persistent mood changes should consider evaluating vitamin levels as part of a broader health assessment.

Hair Loss

Severe vitamin D deficiency may contribute to hair thinning or hair loss. While hair loss can have multiple causes, nutritional deficiencies including vitamin D deficiency may play a role.

Slow Wound Healing

Vitamin D contributes to the body’s inflammatory response and tissue repair processes. Individuals with deficiency may notice slower wound healing or delayed recovery from injuries.

Who Is at Risk of Vitamin D Deficiency?

Several factors can increase the risk of vitamin D deficiency.

Limited Sun Exposure

People who spend most of their time indoors or use strong sun protection regularly may not receive enough sunlight to produce sufficient vitamin D.

Urban lifestyles and indoor work environments contribute to this problem.

Older Adults

As people age, the skin becomes less efficient at producing vitamin D from sunlight. Older adults may therefore require additional dietary intake or supplements.

Individuals with Darker Skin

Melanin reduces the skin’s ability to produce vitamin D from sunlight. Individuals with darker skin tones may require longer sun exposure to produce adequate levels.

Poor Dietary Intake

Few foods naturally contain vitamin D. Diets lacking fortified foods, dairy products or fatty fish may contribute to deficiency.

Medical Conditions

Certain medical conditions such as kidney disease, liver disease or digestive disorders can affect vitamin D absorption and metabolism.

How Is Vitamin D Deficiency Diagnosed?

Vitamin D deficiency is diagnosed through a simple blood test that measures the level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D in the bloodstream.

Doctors may recommend testing for individuals who experience symptoms of deficiency or belong to high-risk groups.

Early diagnosis allows healthcare providers to recommend appropriate treatment and lifestyle adjustments.

How to Improve Vitamin D Levels

Sunlight Exposure

Regular sunlight exposure is one of the most effective ways to increase vitamin D levels. Experts generally recommend 10 to 30 minutes of sunlight exposure several times per week, depending on skin type and location.

Dietary Sources of Vitamin D

Although limited, certain foods contain vitamin D, including:

fatty fish such as salmon and mackerel
egg yolks
fortified milk and cereals
mushrooms

Including these foods in the diet can help maintain healthy vitamin D levels.

Vitamin D Supplements

In cases of significant deficiency, doctors may recommend vitamin D supplements. The dosage depends on the individual’s vitamin levels, age and health status.

It is important to take supplements under medical supervision to avoid excessive intake.

Preventing Vitamin D Deficiency

Maintaining adequate vitamin D levels requires a balanced combination of sunlight exposure, proper nutrition and regular health monitoring.

Routine health checkups and vitamin testing can help identify deficiencies early and prevent complications.

Adopting a healthy lifestyle with balanced nutrition and outdoor activity can significantly improve vitamin D status and overall health.

Conclusion

Vitamin D deficiency is a common but often overlooked health concern. Symptoms such as fatigue, bone pain, muscle weakness and frequent infections may indicate low vitamin D levels.

Early detection and proper management are essential to prevent long-term health complications. By ensuring adequate sunlight exposure, maintaining a balanced diet and undergoing regular health checkups, individuals can support healthy vitamin D levels and improve overall wellbeing.

Recognizing the warning signs of vitamin D deficiency and seeking timely medical advice can help protect long-term health and maintain optimal body function.

References

  • Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – Nutritional Deficiency Reports

  • World Health Organization (WHO) – Micronutrient Deficiency Guidelines

  • National Institute of Nutrition (NIN) India – Vitamin D Research Reports

  • Lancet Public Health – Nutritional Health Studies

  • National Institutes of Health (NIH) – Vitamin D Fact Sheets for Health Professionals

See all

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